The relevance of economics

Understanding how different regions and countries will evolve over the next five to seven years from both a growth and an inflation standpoint is crucial to determining one’s longer-term Strategic Asset Allocation.  This might be viewed as an exercise in futility considering the checkered track record of economic forecasts over the short-term (a year or two years).  Although tempting to ignore, it is relevant since the factors affecting longer-term growth and inflation rates at the national or regional level are well-established over longer-term cycles.  Ignoring macro-economic factors may prove to be fool-hardy.